The outlook for Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) stock is mixed, with significant challenges and potential opportunities, based on recent analyst reports, financial performance, and market sentiment. Below is a detailed analysis:

Current Stock Performance and Financials
Stock Price and Market Cap: As of June 3, 2025, MRNA closed at $27.81, reflecting a 2.81% gain for the day but a significant decline of 81.86% over the past year. The market capitalization is approximately $10.46 billion. The stock’s 52-week range is $23.15 to $158.82, indicating high volatility and a steep drop from its highs.
Financial Performance: Moderna reported 2024 revenue of $3.24 billion, a 52.75% decrease from $6.85 billion in 2023, with losses of $3.56 billion, down 24.46% from the prior year. The company’s EBITDA is negative at -$3.54 billion, with an EBITDA margin of -116.07%. Last quarter’s earnings per share (EPS) was -$2.52, beating estimates of -$3.12, but the next quarter’s EPS is projected at -$2.96.
Revenue Forecast: Moderna lowered its 2025 revenue guidance to $1.5–$2.5 billion (down from $2.5–$3.5 billion), primarily due to declining COVID-19 vaccine sales, which are expected to drive most revenue in the second half of 2025. This reflects a significant drop from $6.7 billion in 2023 and $18 billion in 2022.
Analyst Ratings and Price Targets
Consensus Rating: The average analyst rating for MRNA is “Hold,” with a shift from “Moderate Buy” two months ago. Of 27 brokerage firms, 4 rate it “Strong Buy” (14.81%), 15 “Hold,” and 2 “Strong Sell.”
Price Targets: The average 12-month price target is $48.13–$69.36, suggesting a potential upside of 70.13–79.94% from the current price of ~$27.34. Targets range from a low of $20 to a high of $212, reflecting divergent views. For example, Evercore ISI’s $60 target implies a 40.4% upside, while the Street-high $212 suggests a 395.9% potential gain.
Analyst Sentiment: Some analysts, like Piper Sandler, maintain a “Buy” rating, citing Moderna’s pipeline potential, while others, like Bank of America, reaffirm a “Sell” due to financial and regulatory challenges. Bernstein and TD Cowen hold “Hold” ratings, reflecting caution.
Key Factors Influencing the Outlook
Challenges
Declining Vaccine Sales: Moderna’s primary revenue source, its COVID-19 vaccine (Spikevax), has seen a sharp decline in demand due to reduced public uptake, competing therapeutics, and the end of emergency government funding. U.S. market share for COVID shots dropped from 48% in 2023 to 40% in 2024, with further declines expected.
Regulatory and Political Headwinds: Recent changes under U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a vaccine skeptic, have raised concerns. The cancellation of a bird flu vaccine contract and the replacement of all 17 members of the CDC’s vaccine advisory panel could impact Moderna’s vaccine approvals and market perception.
Legal and Safety Concerns: Ongoing investigations into possible securities fraud and insider trading, combined with posts on X highlighting impurities in vaccine batches and high adverse event rates (2.7% for the new mNEXSPIKE vaccine), contribute to negative sentiment and potential distrust.
Financial Strain: Moderna’s negative EBITDA and ongoing losses raise concerns about sustainability, especially with a reduced revenue forecast. The company is cutting costs by $1 billion in 2025 and $500 million in 2026 to preserve its $9.2 billion cash position, but this may limit R&D investment.
Opportunities
Pipeline Diversification: Moderna is betting on its mRNA platform to deliver 10 new product approvals by 2028, targeting a 25% revenue CAGR from 2026–2028. Key candidates include:
A combination COVID-flu shot and a next-generation COVID vaccine.
mRNA-4157, a cancer vaccine in collaboration with Merck, showing promise across multiple tumor types.
Vaccines for RSV, cytomegalovirus, Epstein-Barr virus, HIV, and others, plus therapeutics for rare diseases and oncology.
Recent FDA Approvals: The FDA approved mNexspike (mRNA-1283) for COVID-19 in adults 65+ and high-risk individuals 12+ on May 30, 2025, and expanded the RSV vaccine (mRESVIA) to high-risk adults aged 18–59. These approvals broaden Moderna’s market but face skepticism due to limited revenue potential and regulatory scrutiny.
Strong Cash Position: Moderna’s $9.2 billion cash reserve, relative to its $13.1 billion market cap, provides financial flexibility to fund its pipeline and weather near-term losses.
Technical Signals: Short-term technical indicators are positive, with the stock breaking a falling trend and showing buy signals from moving averages and MACD. Some analysts suggest the current price (~$27) is undervalued, with a predicted fair opening price of $27.55 on June 4, 2025.
Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis
Bearish Sentiment: Technical indicators show a bearish long-term trend, with 14 of 26 indicators signaling bearish signals as of June 1, 2025. The stock is trading 6.27% below some forecast models, suggesting potential undervaluation but also reflecting market caution.
Short Interest: 19.23% of the float is shorted, with a days-to-cover ratio of 6.1, indicating bearish investor sentiment, though a 2.1% decrease in short interest suggests slight improvement.
Volatility: MRNA has a beta of 0.93 and 4.54–3.95% price volatility over the past 30 days, indicating moderate risk relative to the market.
Long-Term Forecast
2027–2030: Forecasts for 2027 are bearish, with a high of $25.88 and a potential ROI of 2.58%. By 2029, the average price could reach $29.12, and by 2030, some projections suggest a $27.94 low with a 5.21% ROI. Long-term optimism hinges on pipeline success, but bearish trends dominate due to current revenue challenges.
Analyst Optimism: Some analysts see a potential 96.62% gain by 2030 if Moderna achieves its pipeline goals, though this is speculative and depends on regulatory and market acceptance.
Conclusion
The outlook for Moderna (MRNA) is cautious due to declining COVID-19 vaccine sales, regulatory uncertainties, and ongoing losses. However, its robust mRNA pipeline, recent FDA approvals, and strong cash position offer potential for a turnaround if new products gain traction. Analysts lean toward a “Hold” rating, with significant upside potential (70–80%) but high risks due to market and regulatory challenges. Short-term technical signals suggest a possible buy opportunity, but long-term investors should weigh the pipeline’s promise against current financial and political headwinds.

Recommendation: Investors with a high-risk tolerance may consider MRNA for its long-term potential, particularly if pipeline products succeed, but conservative investors might find better opportunities elsewhere until clearer signs of recovery emerge. Always conduct thorough research and consider consulting a financial advisor, as market conditions can change rapidly.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Stock investments carry risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.